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JANUARY 2020        TAP TIMES          -7-          Several large chip makers indicated early
                                                                that their CAPEX will reach new levels.
                                                                While this is not true for giant AT&T, whose
                  Chip packaging (from 6)
                                                                CAPEX forecast for 2020 is lower than it
                                                                was for 2019, “don’t think they’re cutting
        She predicted this year will be a better one
        for the OSATs.  The fi rst quarter will be              back on 5G,” Vardaman said.
        slow, “but we expect things to get better               Gov’t network of “First Responders”
        during the year.”
                                                                In fact, she reported, AT&T is “riding on
                                                                the coattails of the government’s First Re-
        Still shipping  many 4G phones
        She emphasized that although 5G will                    sponder network, which the government is
                                                                paying for.”
        carve out a portion of the market, many
        phones on the 4G and even 3G platforms                  Most 5G will rollout in the urban, not sub-
        will still be sold.
                                                                urban areas.  One of the factors that may
                                                                slow the 5G rollout, she said, is peoples’
        The new radio component in the 5G                       fear that mmWave may produce some
        phones requires a higher bandwidth and                  negative health eff ects.
        lower latency with massive scalability. In
        packaging 5G components, “There are                     This technology is now used in many air-
        going to be many changes in the actual
        packages and in the design of the pack-                 port scanners, and “a lot of people are
                                                                concerned that their kids are being ex-
        ages,” Vardaman reported.
        The new platform will require not only new              Vardaman called for a study on the eff ects
        radios, but new modems, new power am-
        plifi ers and advanced front-end modules.               of mmWave conducted by “someone we
                                                                can trust, but not the government.”
        The result will be lots of design activity,
        “and that will be good for the OSATs.”
                                                                More SIP designs
        Many of the phones now being advertised,
        she said, are 5G phones on the sub-6GHz                 Because of the 5G platform, the market
                                                                will see many more SIP designs with inte-
        platform that work on the current 4G in-                grated antennas.  “Antenna design,” she
                                                                said, “will become extremely important.”
                                                                                   Companies with good chip
                                                                                   design capabilities “are in a
                                                                                   good position.”

                                                                                   The advent of 5G also
                                                                                   means there will be more
                                                                                   high-performance proces-

                                                                                   “Remember, Apple bought
                                                                                   Intel’s modem business.
                                                                                   We would expect Apple to
                                                                                   design their own baseband
                                                                                   modem--that’s their histor-
                                                                                   ic model.” Next page
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